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UK newspaper ad revenues 'will fall by 21% in 2009'
Sumber: guardian.co.uk, Friday November 21 2008 07.10 GMT
The UK newspaper industry, already reeling from the economic downturn, is heading for an even grimmer 2009 with advertising revenues forecast to fall by 21% next year, according to a report.
Even the UK digital media sector, which has enjoyed double-digit revenue growth for several years, will see growth cut to just over 2% in 2009, the Enders Analysis report predicts.
Enders Analysis forecasts that total UK ad spend would decline by 12% next year and not return to growth until 2011.
These figures reflect the "dramatic downgrading of the state of the UK economy in recent weeks and days, ending talk of a shallow and short recession", the report stated.
The UK print ad market will be the worst hit of all media sectors in 2009, down 21%, with newspaper display ads down 22% and classifieds down about 19%, according to Enders Analysis. Growth will not return to the print ad market until some time after 2013.
TV ad spend will be down 10% next year, and 4% in 2010, with a small 2% growth predicted for 2011.
Enders Analysis estimates that between 2007 and 2010 TV ad spend will have fallen by 19%.
Outdoor advertising will be down 7.8% next year, radio ad spend will fall 5.7%, cinema ad revenue will contract by 8.8%, and the direct mail sector will drop by 13.8%.
"We expect TV advertising revenues to return to growth when economic growth returns, while press, radio and direct mail are likely to remain in decline for the foreseeable future," the report said.
Even the internet sector, which was until recently considered to be relatively recession-proof, will be severely hit by the downturn next year.
The explosive growth of the medium has led to huge double-digit increases in the size of the medium - 39.5% in 2007 and 20% this year.
However, next year digital media revenue growth will crash to just 2.1%, Enders Analysis forecasts.
The research company said that internet growth would be sustained by the resilient search ad market.
Internet display advertising, predicted to grow by 10.2% this year, will take a battering and actually contract by 5.5% in 2009, according to the report.
The total UK internet ad market will swiftly return to growth of 9.3% in 2010, 13.3% in 2011, 12.5% in 2012 and 7.4% in 2013, according to Enders Analysis.
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